Scientists predict dramatic Midwest climate change
By KEN MIDKIFF
Published Friday, January 9, 2009
(http://www.columbiatribune.com/2009/Jan/20090109Comm003.asp)

On Dec. 31, the day before New Year’s Day, the temperature peaked at 67 degrees here in Columbia. At the Lake of the Ozarks, the temperature made it over 70 degrees (72 degrees, to be exact).

As this is written, about a week later, the overnight temperature is predicted to be 25 degrees with a daytime high of about 37. Between then and now, the low temperature went down to around zero.

This is weather. It is winter, and this is Mid-Missouri. It is generally cold, but occasionally warm southerly flows of wind bring warmer temperatures.

Climate is the long-term average of daily weather. And, for those who cite our cold days as an indication that climate is not changing, just take a look around. It is not the weather in Mid-Missouri that is indicative of global climate change. The key word is "global." It might be a bit nippy here, but in the Land Down Under, where it is summer, hot weather prevails.

Thanks to the Internet, the weather predictions for Perth, Sydney, Alice Springs and Melbourne appeared on my computer screen. The predictions, as might be expected in Australia in summer, were for highs in the upper 80s to low 100s.

Add up a few years of daily weather, and climate emerges. The January average high temperature for Perth is 86 degrees - that’s climate. But temperatures in Perth can soar to over 100 degrees or swoop down into the low 70s - that’s weather. One day of 100 degrees does not denote global warming just as one day in the low 70s does not denote global cooling. Just normal variation.

A few years ago, climatologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration overlaid transparencies that contained maps showing various climate predictions for the next decade or so. While there were no matches in many cases - and in some areas, the predictions were flatly contradictory - there were areas of agreement.

One of these areas of agreement pertained to the Midwest. It seems that all the computer models predicted that the Midwest climate would become wetter - and cooler. All that rain would come from clouds, and those clouds would prevent sunlight from reaching the surface and heating it. Hence, the computer models agreed, it would be cooler here.

Not much cooler, not even noticeable - just 1 or 2 degrees on average per year. Sure enough, that has happened. And, as predicted, the last few years have been quite wet. The just-concluded year of 2008 was the wettest on record. About every area of Missouri received copious amounts of rainfall. We normally get about 40 inches, but many areas - St. Louis, Kansas City - received between 60 and 70 inches. That amount might be normal for Florida but not here.

What does all this mean for global climate change?

Not much at this point. But if things continue to be wet and cool for the next decade, then the computer models would be shown to be correct. At that point, it could be stated (not with absolute certainty; science is never 100 percent certain) that global climate change is here.

For those who were reading closely, the computer models’ predictions pertained only to the next 10 years. After that, all are in agreement: It will become hotter. Not just here, but worldwide. Even in Perth.